Breeder’s Cup Analysis by Rich Mattei

Future Stars Friday

 

Race 1:  (2) AMERICAN TATTOO is a horse that can dictate the pace in this race, his two lone wins in North America are races where he controlled the pace and look for him to do it in this race. He also has pace figures that match up to his main foes. (5) CAMPAIGN is the most likely winner as he has been competitive in these longer distance races, only problem is he may be against it at a pace advantage, still one that you cannot leave off horizontal wagers. (1) ITSINTHEPOST has run well in his two starts on dirt, once in a race that was rained off the turf and another to Campaign in July at Del Mar. Could sit right off the early leader and can get a jump on the favorite if our top choice gives up the lead.

 Selections: 2-5-1

 Race 2:  (3) KOOKIE GAL was out of position last time that she raced, as she likes to be forwardly placed.  The race was dominated on the front end by a horse that won two times after that including a Graded Stakes.  Expect this horse to be much closer to the pace and fresh off the layoff. (8) ZUZANNA was in a tougher allowance race last time out at Keeneland and did not disgrace herself.  The leader in that race did a good job slowing down the second quarter in that race.  She had to swing out seven wide on the far turn just to miss second.  The second place horse in that race has come back to win. (1) RAYANA was impressive first time out as she dominated on the front end going a mile.  Last time out the cut back in distance was likely the wrong distance for this filly.  She is one that needs to be forwardly placed and should be back out to a route of ground.

 Selections: 3-8-1-9

 

Race 3:  Most likely winner of this race will be (11) BEEN STUDYING HER who drops out of Grade 1 company and has an excuse in that race as the pace was soft in that race and she likes to come from behind, but taking a shot here with (9) CHOLULA LIPS.  She has excuses in her last few starts. Last time out, she may not have handled the mile or the fact it was on turf.  Two starts back, when second to Been Studying Her, she was up on a pace that collapsed.  It was a race that was dominated by horses sitting off of the pace.  She will be sitting right off the pace and is cutting back in distance, which should help her.   (1) HOMEHOME got a slow speed figure, but she pulled away from that field impressively as she stalked than made a three wide bid on the far turn.  The second place runner in that race came back to break her maiden next time out, improving her speed figure fourteen points.

 

Selections: 9-11-1-12

 

Race 4: (7) Chipper got an education first time out. Broke slow from the rail and was sent hard in the middle of the race along the rail to improve position, as the rail opened up down the backstretch.  He was very rank around the far turn in behind horses and even hit the rail at the quarter pole before challenging the leader to finish a good second.  Now with an outside post compared to last time, he can stalk on the outside.  (8) GREAT ULYSSES comes out of a live race at Keeneland last time out. The horse that ended up winning and him were both making the same move at the same time around the far turn.  The winner had a clear run in the stretch while he got caught in an uncomfortable spot in behind the horses fighting for the lead but fought on well nonetheless.  Note the winner and sixth place finishers out of the race, have both come back to win. (2) CALI DUDE endured pace pressure throughout in his maiden win, put the other speeds away and held clear in the stretch in his debut. May have to endure the same type of pace pressure this time around again.

 
Selections: 7-8-2-11

 
Race 5:  (9) FOUR WHEEL DRIVE was impressive in his last start, tracked the leader, put him away and powered home to a convincing win. Should get a similar trip as last time out. (10) A’ ALI tracked a hot pace in his last start and opened up to a convincing win, he too, is another one that can get a similar trip.  Unlike most European shippers, this horse has real speed to be close.  (3) ANOTHER MIRACLE was out of position last time out as he likes to be on the lead, with one of the inside posts, he should be firing out of there and can be on the lead in this race, which makes him dangerous at a price.

 
Selections: 9-10-3-1

 
Races 1-5 Pick 5:  $100 Budget using ABC method.

 All A's

·       2/3,8/9,11/7,8/9 8.00

 A's with One B

·       5/3,8/9,11/7,8/9 4.00

·       2/1,9/9,11/7,8/9 4.00

·       2/3,8/1/7,8/9 2.00

·       2/3,8/9,11/2,11/9 4.00

·       2/3,8/9,11/7,8/3,10 8.00

 A's with Two B

·       5/1,9/9,11/7,8/9 4.00

·       5/3,8/1/7,8/9 2.00

·       5/3,8/9,11/2,11/9 4.00

·       5/3,8/9,11/7,8/3,10 8.00

·       2/1,9/1/7,8/9 2.00

·       2/1,9/9,11/2,11/9 4.00

·       2/1,9/9,11/7,8/3,10 8.00

·       2/3,8/1/2,11/9 2.00

·       2/3,8/1/7,8/3,10 4.00

·       2/3,8/9,11/2,11/3,10 8.00

 A's with One C

·       2/3,8/12/7,8/9 2.00

·       2/3,8/9,11/10/9 2.00

·       2/3,8/9,11/7,8/1 4.00

$84

 

Race 6: This race is most interesting as the likely post time favorite (12) ARIZONA who has chased the best two year old in Europe around this season, drew a poor post. (2) STRUCTOR gets a favorable post position as he was close to a contested pace last time out and made a bold bid for the lead around the far turn and finished in front of a horse in this race, who had a perfect trip.  His maiden score looks slow on speed figures but do note, he came his last quarter of a mile faster than older stakes horses on that same card at Saratoga. Will be tough to beat.  (5) VITALOGY has lost to some of his rivals in his last two starts but he does have excuses.  He was bottled up in the stretch in that race up at Woodbine before clearing late.  Last time out he drew post fourteen and had to come from last to close hard to be second in a race that was dominated towards the front end.  (14) HIT THE ROAD may have a bad post, but his last race was visually impressive as he was down towards in the inside, near the back of the field.  He swung out around the far turn and pulled away easily in that race.  If he did not have post fourteen he would have been my top selection, but has a chance at a price nonetheless.

 
Selections: 2-5-14-12

 

 Race 7: (1) DONNA VELOCE may win this race, as she was visually impressive in her debut and got a big speed figure.  Horses coming out of maiden races into this race in the past just have not faired well in this event.  (4) BRITISH IDIOM should get the same type of trip she did last time out where she was outside and made a big move around the far turn to crush that field last time out at Keeneland.  Seems like she can be value at 7/2 or higher.  (6) BAST might have been taken out of her ball game last time out as she had to sit right on top of a slow pace.  She should be able to sit back and make one run while stalking mid-pack in this race.  (8) K P DREAMIN had no chance last time as there was no pace in front of her to close into.  She can get into the exotics in this race at a price.

 
Selections: 4-6-8-7

 
Race 8: (7) CRYSTALLE should get the pace she needs in this race.  The inner turf course at Belmont Park, is unfavorable to closers, in which is where she ran last time out.  She still closed strong to finish second in that race to a horse that got the jump on her. Two starts back, she closed well to win at Saratoga after missing the break.  (11) SHARING easily dispatched a weaker field last time out in a small stake at Laurel Park.  She seems like a horse that is getting better every time she races and can win this race as an upset chance.  Note her dam, Shared Account, won a Breeders’ Cup event back in 2010.  (9) ALBIGNA really kicked into gear late last time out in Europe as the horse on the lead looked like she was going to win by open lengths.  Don’t know if that was because of the soft ground she got in that race but still liked her explosive turn of foot.

 
Selections: 7-11-9-5

 
Race 9: (1) DENNIS’ MOMENT is way the horse to beat in this race as he cruised to an almost twenty length victory breaking his maiden than backed that up with a win going two turns at Churchill Downs. It will take him not showing up for someone else to win this race. (5) SCABBARD was closing hard last time out to finish a nice second to our top choice last time out.  He also got held up a few times in traffic in that race. (6) EIGHT RINGS won gate to wire last time out at Santa Anita, but he was drifting in and out in the stretch and on his wrong lead as well. He could have a pace advantage in this race though.

 
Selections: 1-5-6-3




Race 5-9 Pick 5: $120 Budget Using ABC Method





 All A's

·       9/2,5/4,6/7,9,11/1 6.00

 A's with One B

·       3,10/2,5/4,6/7,9,11/1 12.00

·       9/12,14/4,6/7,9,11/1 6.00

·       9/2,5/4,6/5/1 2.00

·       9/2,5/4,6/7,9,11/5,6 12.00

 A's with Two B

·       3,10/12,14/4,6/7,9,11/1 12.00

·       3,10/2,5/4,6/5/1 4.00

·       3,10/2,5/4,6/7,9,11/5,6 24.00

·       9/12,14/4,6/5/1 2.00

·       9/12,14/4,6/7,9,11/5,6 12.00

·       9/2,5/4,6/5/5,6 4.00

 A's with One C

·       1/2,5/4,6/7,9,11/1 6.00

·       9/1/4,6/7,9,11/1 3.00

$105




Race 10: (2) CANDY CORNELL should appreciate the stretch back out in distance as he was hitting his best stride late last time out to an undefeated horse.  Two starts back was way too short and he was paced compromised in that race. Three starts back he was second to a horse who came back to win a Graded Stakes race at Parx. (11) JUSTINIAN was impressive in his last start to break his maiden as he was in a race long duel with the second place finisher.  They were almost nine lengths clear of the third place finisher.  The second place horse came back to win in his next start by over five lengths.  (1) ROGALLO turned in a nice second place finish last time out as he was back on his preferred surface after two failing turf experiments.

 

Selections: 2-11-1-13